Agriculture and Climate Change

                                                                                                                                македонски 

Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors.  In Macedonia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods.  The rural poor will be disproportionately affected because of their greater dependence on agriculture, their relatively lower ability to adapt, and the high share of income they spend on food.  Climate impacts could therefore undermine progress that has been made in poverty reduction and adversely impact food security and economic growth in vulnerable rural areas.

At the same time, along with the risks, climate change can also create opportunities in the agricultural sector. Increased temperatures can lengthen growing seasons, higher carbon dioxide concentrations can enhance plant growth, and in some areas rainfall and the availability of water resources can increase as a result of climate change.

These challenges motivated the World Bank and the government of Macedonia to embark on a joint study to identify and prioritize options for adapting the agricultural sector to climate change. 
The main findings of the study are as follows:

• Temperature will increase and precipitation will become more variable in Macedonia as a result of climate change.  These findings are consistent with recent changes in climate in Macedonia, and will persist and grow more severe over the next few decades.
• Farmers in Macedonia are not suitably adapted to current climate; this effect is sometimes called the “adaptation deficit,” which in Macedonia is large.  As a result, many of the recommended climate adaptation measures can have immediate benefits in improving yields, as well as improving resiliency to future, more severe climate change.
• The direct temperature and precipitation effect of future climate change on crops is mixed – The climate change forecast will improve yields of many irrigated crops in the Mediterranean and Continental agro ecological zones, whereas yields of most rainfed crops in these agro ecological zones are expected to decline.  Climate change may increase yields for all crops grown in the Alpine agro ecological zone.  Wheat yields could significantly increase across all agro ecological zones, but rainfed maize yields could decline in the Mediterranean and Continental agro ecological zones.  Yields of high-value rainfed fruit crops - apples and grapes - are expected to decrease.  Vegetable yields are expected to increase in the Mediterranean and Continental agro ecological zones, in those areas where sufficient irrigation water is available.
• Water resources are abundant in parts of Macedonia, but we forecast water shortages by 2050 under most climate change scenarios for the Crna and Pcinja basins.  In many cases, farmer training may be needed to ensure more efficient use of water during dry seasons, additional investment is needed in the current irrigation and drainage infrastructure to take best advantage of these water resources in the agricultural sector, and new storage appears to have benefits in excess of the construction costs.
• The combined effect of climate change on crop yields in those areas where irrigation water shortages are forecast will be substantial leading to up to 50% decrease in yields in the Crna basin.  While our draft results suggest the direct effects of climate change on crops may be beneficial in many areas where we forecast that irrigation water will be available, increased crop demands for water during the May through September period, coupled with decreases in runoff in the June through October period, will likely lead to severe crop losses of up to 50% for all irrigated agriculture in the Crna basin.
• The direct effects of climate change on the livestock sector, particularly beef cattle, chickens, and even sheep, could be substantial, but methods to reliably quantify this effect are not currently available for application to Macedonia.  We anticipate that the temperature stress effect on livestock would be experienced gradually over time, however, and farmers confirmed that they have not seen an immediate effect of climate on their livestock production. 
• National-level adaptation and capacity building is a high priority.  Policy changes and institutional capacity improvements that could be undertaken immediately include expanding extension service capacity; improving provision of short-term forecasts of meteorology to farmers; encouraging consolidation of farmland into larger holdings to facilitate more substantial investments in on-farm technology, and encouraging private sector efforts to adapt to climate change.  Studies should be conducted at the national level to more specifically map and assess functionality of existing irrigation and drainage capacity, particularly in flood-prone areas.  Institutional capacity improvements should focus on identifying seeds for drought resistant varieties and temperature tolerant livestock breeds on the current international market for adoption in Macedonia, as well as training farmers in more efficient use of water and to make use of new short-term forecast information.  Our analysis indicates these measures have high benefit-cost ratios and are also favored by Macedonian farmers.
• At the agro ecological zones and farm-level, high priority adaptation measures include improving and/or augmenting irrigation infrastructure, particularly in the Continental agro ecological zones; optimizing water use efficiency at the farm-level (all agro ecological zones); providing more climate resilient seed varieties and the know-how to cultivate them effectively for high yield (agro ecological zones).  Irrigation water shortages in the Southwest regions appear likely, and can be addressed through a range of adaptive measures, while at the same time in some areas climate change could exacerbate existing flooding issues, requiring rehabilitation of drainage capacity.  All of these measures also have high benefit-cost ratios and are favored by Macedonian farmers.
  

The table below provides a summary of the key findings of this assessment, including the climate change impacts, exposures that cause those impacts, and the adaptation options to address the impacts at both the national- and agro ecological zone-levels.  A check mark indicates that the corresponding adaptation option will either reduce the climate change impact directly or will do so indirectly by closing the adaptation deficit.

SUMMARY OF KEY IMPACTS, EXPOSURES, AND ADAPTATION MEASURES AT THE NATIONAL- AND AEZ-LEVELS